Poll Prognostication


If you've watched the coverage of the Presidential Primary elections, then you are familiar with the never ending number of polls that keep coming. It seems like there about a half dozen new ones every day. The political pundits play up the importance of these polls, but rarely report on their accuracy. On numerous occasions the numbers have been way off and at times the polls have been dead wrong. Polls for events in the far future have been even more inaccurate than the short term ones. If we look back to the beginning of this whole process, Clinton and Giuliani were way ahead in the polls. Nobody was looking at the polls and talking about how Giuliani would be knocked out early and that Obama would be leading Clinton. It is hard to take these polls seriously, especially ones that are used to predict an election that is over five months away.

Even though these long term polls have proved unreliable, the political pundits will still play up the importance of them. Even the exit polls of today are being used to predict the General Election. In the beginning of the election we heard about how Barack Obama couldn't get a majority of the black vote, now we are hearing about how he won't be able to get the white vote. In the beginning the polls showed Barack winning virtually no states, now we are hearing he can't win certain states. In the beginning I don't believe there was a single poll that predicted Barack Obama would defeat the inevitable candidate Hillary Clinton and be able to take down the great Clinton political machine. The early polls of the Primary predicted nothing of how it turned out, so I find it hard to believe today's polls of how the General Election will turn out. It appears Barack Obama created a winning strategy for the Primary and I am inclined to believe he can do the same for the General Election. He certainly exceeded the early polls for the Primary, I wouldn't be surprised if it happens again for the General Election.

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